From the report: Estimates produced before OSIRIS-REx arrived at the space rock tallied the cumulative probability of a Bennu impact between the years 21 at 1 in 2,700, according to NASA. “As a result, scientists behind new research now say they’re confident that the asteroid’s total impact probability through 2300 is just 1 in 1,750,” reports. Many of the topics introduced in this chapter will be covered in much more detail in later chapters.NASA’s OSIRIS-REx spacecraft has been orbiting an asteroid called Bennu for more than two years to fine-tune the agency’s existing models of its trajectory. This chapter provides a brief but non-technical introduction to randomness and probability. But what do we really mean when talk about “probability”? You have some familiarity with the words “probability”, “chance”, “odds”, or “likelihood” from everyday life.

Scientists fine-tune odds of asteroid Bennu hitting Earth through 2300 with NASA probe’s help (, Sept 3, 2021).

We anticipate an above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean.

Study suggests that the rate of global warming increases the probability of extreme temperatures.

Basketball Reference’s Hall of Fame probability model already has Giannis at 67.9 percent.

Less than 1% probability that Earth’s energy imbalance increase occurred naturally ( Science Daily, July 28, 2021).

A Week of negatives increases probability of stock market correction.

Forecasters now have a model that can predict the probability of rip currents up to six days out.

Researchers say the probability of living past 110 is on the rise ( CNBC, July 17, 2021).

Here are just a few quotes from recent online articles which mention probability (or odds).

7 Common Distributions of Continuous Random Variables.

6.5 Comparison of Distributions of Counts.

6 Common Distributions of Discrete Random Variables.

5.6.5 Independent, uncorrelated, and something in between.

5.6.2 Linearity of conditional expected value.

5.6.1 Conditional expected value as a random variable.

5.5.3 Variance of linear combinations of random variables.

5.5 Expected values of linear combinations of random variables.

5.2 “Law of the unconscious statistician” (LOTUS).

4.8.2 Continuous random variables: Conditional probability density functions.

4.8.1 Discrete random variables: Conditional probability mass functions.

4.7.2 Joint probability density fuctions.

4.6.2 Nonlinear transformations of random variables.

4.6 Distributions of transformations of random variables.

4.5.1 One ring spinner to rule them all?.

4.3 Continuous random variables: Probability density functions.

4.2 Discrete random variables: Probability mass functions.

4.1 Do not confuse a random variable with its distribution.

3.4 Conditional versus unconditional probability.

3 Rules of Probability and Conditional Probability.

2.14 A more interesting example: Matching problem.

2.13.2 Conditional distributions of continuous random variables.

2.13.1 Conditional distributions of discrete random variables.

2.11.2 Joint distributions of two continuous random variables.

2.11.1 Joint distributions of two discrete random variables.

2.10.2 Normal distributions and the empirical rule.

2.9.3 Averages of indicator random variables.

2.8.2 Simulating from a marginal distribution.

2.7.4 Conditioning is “slicing and renormalizing”.

2.7.2 Joint, conditional, and marginal probabilities.

2.7.1 Simulating conditional probabilities.

2.6.5 Beware a false sense of precision.

2.6.4 Approximating multiple probabilities.

2.6.2 Approximating probabilities: Simulation margin of error.

2.6.1 A few Symbulate commands for summarizing simulation output.

2.5.3 Computer simulation: Meeting problem.

2.5.2 Computer simulation: Dice rolling.

2.5.1 Tactile simulation: Boxes and spinners.2.4.2 Some probability measures in the meeting problem.2.4.1 Some probability measures for a four-sided die.2 The Language of Probability and Simulation.

1.7 Why study coins, dice, cards, and spinners?.1.6 Approximating probabilities - a brief introduction to simulation.1.4 Proportional reasoning and tables of counts.

Finetune odds asteroid earth